Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 14 hours?
Ends: Aug 21, 2026, 23:59 UTCMarket data: Aug 21, 2026, 08:05 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21T06:26:18.922Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T06:31:30.257Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T06:36:41.537Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T06:41:52.439Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T06:46:53.852Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T06:52:16.778Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T06:57:26.908Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T07:02:31.352Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T07:07:40.938Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T07:12:47.042Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T07:17:51.159Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T07:23:02.681Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T07:28:15.344Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T07:33:21.844Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T07:38:26.367Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T07:43:54.814Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T07:50:25.436Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T07:55:39.747Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T08:02:04.010Z | 100.0% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed have started streaming a gaming gauntlet on August 20, 2026. They will attempt a challenge to play Roblox, win three Rocket League matches, and secure a Victory Royale in a ranked Fortnite match. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kai and Speed complete all three aforementioned objectives of the gauntlet live on stream within the specified duration, as displayed on the on-screen timer on Kai Cenat's official broadcast on Twitch. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no on-screen timer is visible at the time of completion, this market will resolve according to the number of hours since August 20, 2026, 2:38 PM ET. The objectives may be completed in any order. An objective must be achieved on stream and accepted by Kai and Speed as complete. An objective will not be treated as completed if they void and continue pursuing it. Only events occurring while at least one of the two players is broadcasting the challenge live will count. Footage of off-stream or previously recorded attempts will not qualify. If the challenge is cancelled by, abandoned before completion by, or not completed within the specified duration, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the on-screen timer displayed on Kai Cenat's official broadcast on Twitch (https://www.twitch.tv/kaicenat).
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.