VERIFIED PAPER CASE · DAILY
ETH Daily Signal Post-Mortem: +7.95 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down on July 29?
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 28, 04:58 PMJul 28, 10:44 PMJul 29, 04:29 AMJul 29, 10:14 AMJul 29, 03:59 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T11:59:41.665Z | 40.5% | 38.4% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T12:25:20.818Z | 26.5% | 18.8% | -7.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T12:29:14.764Z | 27.5% | 20.0% | -7.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T12:38:10.904Z | 26.5% | 18.5% | -8.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T12:44:11.019Z | 26.5% | 18.1% | -8.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T12:53:11.938Z | 25.5% | 17.3% | -8.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T12:58:50.492Z | 24.5% | 24.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T12:59:11.770Z | 24.5% | 15.0% | -9.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T12:59:43.759Z | 24.5% | 15.0% | -9.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:06:53.166Z | 22.5% | 13.9% | -8.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:15:21.790Z | 24.5% | 15.6% | -8.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:19:16.748Z | 18.5% | 10.8% | -7.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:21:21.735Z | 18.5% | 9.7% | -8.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:29:16.778Z | 18.5% | 11.8% | -6.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:31:14.268Z | 19.5% | 9.8% | -9.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:44:11.240Z | 25.5% | 16.1% | -9.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:48:11.069Z | 25.0% | 13.4% | -11.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:53:17.500Z | 28.0% | 10.8% | -17.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:57:12.628Z | 22.5% | 5.7% | -16.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:59:12.506Z | 22.5% | 9.3% | -13.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:59:43.657Z | 22.5% | 9.3% | -13.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:03:09.923Z | 26.5% | 15.7% | -10.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:11:22.123Z | 27.5% | 8.0% | -19.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:21:22.581Z | 13.0% | 3.5% | -9.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:33:13.542Z | 9.0% | 2.2% | -6.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:55:18.070Z | 6.0% | 0.9% | -5.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:59:21.533Z | 4.5% | 0.1% | -4.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:59:42.456Z | 4.5% | 0.1% | -4.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:58:48.073Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:59:59.670Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 11.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 21.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 79.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 8.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 79.0%, gross edge 9.7%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.2%, safety 0.5%, net edge 8.0%. Marx fair UP is 11.3%.