VERIFIED PAPER CASE · DAILY
ETH Daily Signal Post-Mortem: +7.95 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down on July 29?
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 52.5%Marx Fair UP 49.3%
Jul 28, 04:00 PMJul 28, 07:50 PMJul 28, 11:40 PMJul 29, 03:30 AMJul 29, 07:21 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T05:18:41.463Z | 36.5% | 42.5% | +6.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:22:11.814Z | 35.5% | 29.1% | -6.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:25:40.672Z | 38.5% | 29.1% | -9.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:29:41.081Z | 38.5% | 35.3% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:31:39.484Z | 40.5% | 35.3% | -5.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:36:11.963Z | 40.0% | 38.4% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:42:12.434Z | 44.5% | 42.1% | -2.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:42:50.922Z | 44.5% | 42.1% | -2.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:48:41.252Z | 43.5% | 39.7% | -3.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:50:05.246Z | 44.5% | 39.7% | -4.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:58:19.115Z | 44.5% | 39.3% | -5.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:58:56.088Z | 43.5% | 39.3% | -4.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:03:38.947Z | 44.0% | 39.3% | -4.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:04:04.743Z | 44.0% | 39.3% | -4.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:14:09.816Z | 41.5% | 36.8% | -4.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:21:38.936Z | 43.0% | 48.0% | +5.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:23:46.369Z | 43.0% | 48.0% | +5.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:30:55.823Z | 50.5% | 46.9% | -3.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:32:46.915Z | 50.5% | 46.9% | -3.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:36:08.225Z | 50.5% | 48.9% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:43:38.871Z | 51.0% | 47.8% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:44:34.547Z | 51.5% | 47.8% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:50:40.720Z | 52.5% | 57.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:52:51.331Z | 52.0% | 57.0% | +5.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:59:59.832Z | 53.0% | 58.0% | +5.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:05:14.605Z | 53.0% | 58.0% | +5.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:11:42.827Z | 51.5% | 56.5% | +5.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:11:54.045Z | 51.5% | 56.5% | +5.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:18:39.742Z | 52.5% | 49.3% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:21:09.357Z | 52.5% | 49.3% | -3.2 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 11.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 21.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 79.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 8.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 79.0%, gross edge 9.7%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.2%, safety 0.5%, net edge 8.0%. Marx fair UP is 11.3%.