VERIFIED PAPER CASE · DAILY
ETH Daily Signal Post-Mortem: +8.13 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down on July 26?
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 98.2%Marx Fair UP 99.2%
Jul 26, 08:49 AMJul 26, 10:10 AMJul 26, 11:31 AMJul 26, 12:52 PMJul 26, 02:13 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26T08:57:10.983Z | 84.5% | 73.1% | -11.4 pp |
| 2026-07-26T08:59:43.886Z | 85.5% | 73.1% | -12.4 pp |
| 2026-07-26T09:02:30.251Z | 84.5% | 74.5% | -10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T09:09:42.715Z | 84.5% | 74.8% | -9.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T09:14:40.143Z | 85.5% | 74.8% | -10.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T09:24:52.722Z | 88.5% | 77.9% | -10.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T09:28:36.169Z | 88.5% | 77.7% | -10.8 pp |
| 2026-07-26T09:33:06.324Z | 88.5% | 77.4% | -11.1 pp |
| 2026-07-26T09:45:39.097Z | 89.5% | 79.4% | -10.1 pp |
| 2026-07-26T09:58:41.927Z | 89.5% | 78.1% | -11.4 pp |
| 2026-07-26T09:59:40.432Z | 88.5% | 78.6% | -9.9 pp |
| 2026-07-26T10:00:37.789Z | 88.5% | 78.6% | -9.9 pp |
| 2026-07-26T10:13:34.156Z | 90.5% | 80.3% | -10.2 pp |
| 2026-07-26T10:24:39.223Z | 90.0% | 82.9% | -7.1 pp |
| 2026-07-26T10:25:37.830Z | 90.0% | 82.0% | -8.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T10:31:44.099Z | 90.5% | 82.8% | -7.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T10:33:15.577Z | 91.5% | 83.2% | -8.3 pp |
| 2026-07-26T10:37:32.711Z | 91.5% | 83.5% | -8.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T10:48:58.612Z | 90.5% | 82.2% | -8.3 pp |
| 2026-07-26T10:56:23.656Z | 90.0% | 83.6% | -6.4 pp |
| 2026-07-26T10:59:33.583Z | 90.0% | 83.6% | -6.4 pp |
| 2026-07-26T11:09:55.044Z | 91.0% | 83.7% | -7.3 pp |
| 2026-07-26T11:59:19.989Z | 91.5% | 85.6% | -5.9 pp |
| 2026-07-26T11:59:37.351Z | 92.0% | 85.6% | -6.4 pp |
| 2026-07-26T12:56:08.186Z | 94.5% | 90.7% | -3.8 pp |
| 2026-07-26T12:56:30.256Z | 94.5% | 90.7% | -3.8 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:52:30.583Z | 95.0% | 94.0% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:57:59.929Z | 95.0% | 94.0% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:10:23.579Z | 96.5% | 99.2% | +2.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:13:17.525Z | 98.2% | 99.2% | +1.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 73.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 84.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 17.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 8.1 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 17.0%, gross edge 9.6%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.0%, safety 0.5%, net edge 8.1%. Marx fair UP is 73.4%.