VERIFIED PAPER CASE · DAILY
ETH Daily Signal Post-Mortem: +8.13 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down on July 26?
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 98.2%Marx Fair UP 99.2%
Jul 26, 08:41 AMJul 26, 10:04 AMJul 26, 11:27 AMJul 26, 12:50 PMJul 26, 02:13 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26T13:17:27.880Z | 91.5% | 89.7% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:20:36.478Z | 91.5% | 91.3% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:21:26.124Z | 91.5% | 93.1% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:22:09.783Z | 95.0% | 93.1% | -1.9 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:24:19.497Z | 94.0% | 93.5% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:25:37.290Z | 94.0% | 93.0% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:27:15.868Z | 93.5% | 93.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:27:27.623Z | 95.0% | 93.4% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:30:01.242Z | 95.0% | 90.9% | -4.1 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:32:29.805Z | 93.5% | 91.4% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:33:28.645Z | 93.5% | 91.4% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:36:24.337Z | 93.5% | 92.5% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:37:31.319Z | 94.5% | 92.5% | -2.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:42:20.924Z | 94.5% | 94.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:42:33.760Z | 95.5% | 94.6% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:44:57.207Z | 94.5% | 94.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:46:20.681Z | 95.5% | 95.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:47:41.022Z | 95.0% | 95.5% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:50:28.983Z | 95.0% | 94.4% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:52:51.147Z | 95.0% | 94.4% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:57:59.929Z | 95.0% | 94.6% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:00:13.375Z | 95.0% | 94.6% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:01:31.483Z | 95.0% | 95.1% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:03:05.880Z | 96.5% | 96.2% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:03:33.941Z | 95.0% | 96.2% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:05:31.241Z | 96.5% | 97.7% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:07:22.842Z | 96.5% | 98.7% | +2.2 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:08:13.087Z | 98.2% | 98.7% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:10:23.579Z | 96.5% | 99.2% | +2.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:13:17.525Z | 98.2% | 99.2% | +1.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 73.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 84.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 17.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 8.1 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 17.0%, gross edge 9.6%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.0%, safety 0.5%, net edge 8.1%. Marx fair UP is 73.4%.