VERIFIED PAPER CASE · DAILY
ETH Daily Signal Post-Mortem: +5.52 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down on July 21?
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 93.5%Marx Fair UP 99.4%
Jul 21, 11:23 AMJul 21, 11:44 AMJul 21, 12:05 PMJul 21, 12:27 PMJul 21, 12:48 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21T11:23:17.791Z | 84.5% | 92.5% | +8.0 pp |
| 2026-07-21T11:36:22.588Z | 87.0% | 95.3% | +8.3 pp |
| 2026-07-21T11:59:19.242Z | 89.5% | 97.2% | +7.7 pp |
| 2026-07-21T12:12:18.893Z | 89.5% | 98.3% | +8.8 pp |
| 2026-07-21T12:21:20.973Z | 91.5% | 99.2% | +7.7 pp |
| 2026-07-21T12:29:20.031Z | 94.0% | 99.1% | +5.1 pp |
| 2026-07-21T12:48:21.331Z | 93.5% | 99.4% | +5.9 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 97.6% while the Polymarket UP price was 89.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 91.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.5 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 92.0%, gross edge 6.3%, slippage 0.0%, fee 0.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.3%. Marx fair UP is 98.3%.