VERIFIED PAPER CASE · DAILY
ETH Daily Signal Post-Mortem: +5.99 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down on July 20?
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 30.5%Marx Fair UP 26.7%
Jul 20, 11:40 AMJul 20, 12:15 PMJul 20, 12:50 PMJul 20, 01:25 PMJul 20, 02:00 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20T11:40:44.354Z | 82.5% | 87.5% | +5.0 pp |
| 2026-07-20T11:44:43.380Z | 76.5% | 82.1% | +5.6 pp |
| 2026-07-20T11:48:47.308Z | 74.0% | 84.9% | +10.9 pp |
| 2026-07-20T11:53:43.931Z | 76.0% | 85.3% | +9.3 pp |
| 2026-07-20T11:58:39.099Z | 69.5% | 91.2% | +21.7 pp |
| 2026-07-20T11:58:43.342Z | 78.0% | 91.2% | +13.2 pp |
| 2026-07-20T11:59:43.679Z | 78.0% | 89.0% | +11.0 pp |
| 2026-07-20T12:57:39.615Z | 54.5% | 55.8% | +1.3 pp |
| 2026-07-20T12:58:44.547Z | 51.5% | 55.8% | +4.3 pp |
| 2026-07-20T13:56:39.438Z | 30.5% | 16.1% | -14.4 pp |
| 2026-07-20T13:57:44.048Z | 30.5% | 16.1% | -14.4 pp |
| 2026-07-20T13:59:43.719Z | 30.5% | 25.0% | -5.5 pp |
| 2026-07-20T14:00:44.843Z | 30.5% | 26.7% | -3.8 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 16.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 30.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 76.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 6.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 76.1%, gross edge 7.9%, slippage 0.1%, fee 1.3%, safety 0.5%, net edge 6.0%. Marx fair UP is 16.1%.