VERIFIED PAPER CASE · DAILY
ETH Daily Signal Post-Mortem: +11.21 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down on July 18?
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 85.5%Marx Fair UP 76.0%
Jul 18, 03:31 AMJul 18, 06:01 AMJul 18, 08:32 AMJul 18, 11:02 AMJul 18, 01:33 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18T08:56:02.803Z | 89.5% | 75.5% | -14.0 pp |
| 2026-07-18T09:01:01.932Z | 89.5% | 76.1% | -13.4 pp |
| 2026-07-18T09:07:01.456Z | 89.5% | 74.8% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-07-18T09:12:02.804Z | 89.0% | 75.0% | -14.0 pp |
| 2026-07-18T09:24:05.175Z | 84.0% | 71.0% | -13.0 pp |
| 2026-07-18T09:36:01.842Z | 85.5% | 72.4% | -13.1 pp |
| 2026-07-18T09:46:02.165Z | 88.0% | 73.4% | -14.6 pp |
| 2026-07-18T09:52:00.137Z | 88.0% | 73.4% | -14.6 pp |
| 2026-07-18T09:54:00.683Z | 88.0% | 73.9% | -14.1 pp |
| 2026-07-18T09:59:59.287Z | 88.0% | 73.7% | -14.3 pp |
| 2026-07-18T10:13:01.474Z | 88.5% | 73.5% | -15.0 pp |
| 2026-07-18T10:14:59.361Z | 88.5% | 73.6% | -14.9 pp |
| 2026-07-18T10:22:01.572Z | 88.5% | 73.6% | -14.9 pp |
| 2026-07-18T10:29:58.506Z | 88.5% | 76.9% | -11.6 pp |
| 2026-07-18T10:43:02.218Z | 88.5% | 74.0% | -14.5 pp |
| 2026-07-18T10:53:03.213Z | 89.5% | 75.6% | -13.9 pp |
| 2026-07-18T11:37:02.116Z | 90.5% | 77.5% | -13.0 pp |
| 2026-07-18T11:42:02.022Z | 90.5% | 76.2% | -14.3 pp |
| 2026-07-18T11:49:04.635Z | 90.5% | 78.3% | -12.2 pp |
| 2026-07-18T12:06:01.805Z | 93.5% | 84.2% | -9.3 pp |
| 2026-07-18T12:18:04.447Z | 94.5% | 76.9% | -17.6 pp |
| 2026-07-18T12:46:03.395Z | 92.5% | 80.7% | -11.8 pp |
| 2026-07-18T12:58:05.698Z | 95.5% | 83.1% | -12.4 pp |
| 2026-07-18T13:03:05.331Z | 95.5% | 78.5% | -17.0 pp |
| 2026-07-18T13:05:01.288Z | 95.5% | 79.2% | -16.3 pp |
| 2026-07-18T13:18:05.496Z | 82.5% | 73.3% | -9.2 pp |
| 2026-07-18T13:21:02.723Z | 82.5% | 67.3% | -15.2 pp |
| 2026-07-18T13:23:05.246Z | 80.5% | 70.6% | -9.9 pp |
| 2026-07-18T13:27:02.879Z | 80.5% | 74.4% | -6.1 pp |
| 2026-07-18T13:33:04.802Z | 85.5% | 76.0% | -9.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 65.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 78.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 22.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 11.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 21.0%, gross edge 13.6%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.2%, safety 0.5%, net edge 11.9%. Oracle fair UP is 65.4%.