VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +36.96 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Aug 08, 10:25 AMAug 08, 10:27 AMAug 08, 10:29 AMAug 08, 10:31 AMAug 08, 10:34 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08T10:25:13.425Z | 47.5% | 99.9% | +52.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:25:16.346Z | 75.5% | 99.9% | +24.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:27:12.077Z | 56.5% | 99.9% | +43.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:27:20.955Z | 75.5% | 99.9% | +24.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:28:19.713Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:28:30.372Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:29:12.856Z | 56.5% | 100.0% | +43.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:29:48.020Z | 56.5% | 100.0% | +43.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:30:15.757Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:30:21.356Z | 98.5% | 100.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:31:11.380Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:31:40.596Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:32:15.692Z | 100.0% | 98.5% | -1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:32:20.301Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:33:15.178Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:33:26.396Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:34:14.784Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 99.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 75.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 60.8¢ with a net modeled edge of 37.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 60.8%, gross edge 40.9%, slippage 1.8%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 37.0%. Marx fair UP is 99.9%.