Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +36.96 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY75.5%60.8% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY99.9%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+36.96 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN60.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 08, 10:27 AMAug 08, 10:28 AMAug 08, 10:30 AMAug 08, 10:31 AMAug 08, 10:33 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-08T10:27:20.955Z75.5%99.9%+24.4 pp
2026-08-08T10:33:26.396Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 99.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 75.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 60.8¢ with a net modeled edge of 37.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 60.8%, gross edge 40.9%, slippage 1.8%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 37.0%. Marx fair UP is 99.9%.