Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +44.37 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY51.5%53.3% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY99.9%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+44.37 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN81.6%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 68.5%Marx Fair UP 68.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 08, 07:58 AMAug 08, 07:58 AMAug 08, 07:58 AMAug 08, 07:59 AMAug 08, 07:59 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-08T07:58:12.473Z68.5%68.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-08T07:59:19.357Z68.5%68.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 99.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 51.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 53.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 44.4 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 53.4%, gross edge 47.0%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 44.3%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.