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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +44.37 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY51.5%53.3% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY99.9%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+44.37 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN81.6%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 68.5%Marx Fair UP 68.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 08, 07:50 AMAug 08, 07:52 AMAug 08, 07:54 AMAug 08, 07:57 AMAug 08, 07:59 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-08T07:50:13.532Z54.5%62.5%+8.0 pp
2026-08-08T07:51:14.899Z62.5%62.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-08T07:51:24.795Z62.5%62.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-08T07:51:42.980Z62.5%100.0%+37.5 pp
2026-08-08T07:51:43.341Z62.5%100.0%+37.5 pp
2026-08-08T07:52:11.396Z62.5%100.0%+37.5 pp
2026-08-08T07:53:11.213Z62.5%62.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-08T07:53:20.795Z62.5%62.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-08T07:53:44.678Z62.5%100.0%+37.5 pp
2026-08-08T07:53:45.188Z62.5%100.0%+37.5 pp
2026-08-08T07:54:22.845Z96.5%100.0%+3.5 pp
2026-08-08T07:54:34.779Z96.5%100.0%+3.5 pp
2026-08-08T07:55:10.881Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-08-08T07:56:15.845Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-08-08T07:57:34.312Z100.0%68.5%-31.5 pp
2026-08-08T07:57:45.905Z99.5%68.5%-31.0 pp
2026-08-08T07:58:12.473Z68.5%68.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-08T07:59:19.357Z68.5%68.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 99.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 51.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 53.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 44.4 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 53.4%, gross edge 47.0%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 44.3%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +44.37 pp Edge | AntiPredict