Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +41.63 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 8, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY51.5%56.2% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+41.63 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN72.8%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 08, 05:21 AMAug 08, 05:23 AMAug 08, 05:24 AMAug 08, 05:26 AMAug 08, 05:28 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-08T05:21:44.432Z51.5%100.0%+48.5 pp
2026-08-08T05:28:08.456Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 51.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 56.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 41.6 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 56.2%, gross edge 48.0%, slippage 4.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 41.6%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.