VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +41.63 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 8, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Aug 08, 05:20 AMAug 08, 05:22 AMAug 08, 05:24 AMAug 08, 05:26 AMAug 08, 05:28 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08T05:20:17.002Z | 54.5% | 69.5% | +15.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:21:11.382Z | 51.5% | 69.5% | +18.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:21:25.413Z | 69.5% | 69.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:21:44.264Z | 51.5% | 100.0% | +48.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:21:44.432Z | 51.5% | 100.0% | +48.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:22:12.160Z | 51.5% | 100.0% | +48.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:23:12.610Z | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:23:24.268Z | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:23:43.761Z | 51.5% | 100.0% | +48.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:24:18.356Z | 51.5% | 100.0% | +48.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:25:10.907Z | 69.5% | 69.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:25:23.088Z | 69.5% | 69.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:25:52.137Z | 69.5% | 100.0% | +30.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:26:12.074Z | 69.5% | 100.0% | +30.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:27:28.709Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:28:02.489Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:28:07.969Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:28:08.456Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 51.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 56.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 41.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 56.2%, gross edge 48.0%, slippage 4.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 41.6%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.