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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +41.45 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.7% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY95.3%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+41.45 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-11.6%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 07, 11:15 PMAug 07, 11:17 PMAug 07, 11:18 PMAug 07, 11:20 PMAug 07, 11:22 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T23:15:11.045Z48.5%48.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-07T23:16:10.752Z48.5%48.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-07T23:16:21.293Z48.5%48.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-07T23:16:44.662Z48.5%100.0%+51.5 pp
2026-08-07T23:17:10.668Z48.5%100.0%+51.5 pp
2026-08-07T23:18:10.672Z48.5%48.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-07T23:18:26.581Z48.5%48.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-07T23:18:39.994Z48.5%100.0%+51.5 pp
2026-08-07T23:19:10.738Z48.5%100.0%+51.5 pp
2026-08-07T23:20:11.072Z0.5%48.5%+48.0 pp
2026-08-07T23:20:24.737Z48.5%48.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-07T23:20:43.638Z0.5%100.0%+99.5 pp
2026-08-07T23:21:11.278Z0.5%100.0%+99.5 pp
2026-08-07T23:22:11.056Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T23:22:42.456Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 95.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 41.4 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.8%, gross edge 47.7%, slippage 0.8%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 44.6%. Marx fair UP is 98.7%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +41.45 pp Edge | AntiPredict