VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +15.75 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 30.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.9¢ with a net modeled edge of 15.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.9%, gross edge 19.9%, slippage 0.9%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 16.7%. Marx fair UP is 29.1%.