Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +15.75 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%51.9% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY30.1%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+15.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-13.7%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 97.5%Marx Fair UP 97.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 08, 12:54 PMAug 08, 12:55 PMAug 08, 12:56 PMAug 08, 12:57 PMAug 08, 12:58 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-08T12:54:42.745Z69.5%0.0%-69.5 pp
2026-08-08T12:58:11.358Z97.5%97.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-08T12:58:20.821Z97.5%97.5%-0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 30.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 51.9¢ with a net modeled edge of 15.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.9%, gross edge 19.9%, slippage 0.9%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 16.7%. Marx fair UP is 29.1%.