Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.72 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%52.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+45.72 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
  • The executable UP entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 48.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.