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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.72 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%52.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+45.72 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 15.5%Marx Fair UP 15.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 07, 08:30 PMAug 07, 08:32 PMAug 07, 08:34 PMAug 07, 08:37 PMAug 07, 08:39 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T20:30:10.670Z51.5%51.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T20:31:26.591Z51.5%51.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T20:31:40.639Z51.5%100.0%+48.5 pp
2026-08-07T20:33:21.655Z51.5%51.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T20:33:42.478Z51.5%100.0%+48.5 pp
2026-08-07T20:35:13.922Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T20:35:26.644Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T20:35:40.177Z0.1%100.0%+99.9 pp
2026-08-07T20:36:10.897Z0.1%100.0%+99.9 pp
2026-08-07T20:37:10.877Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T20:37:29.605Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T20:38:10.819Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T20:39:35.531Z0.1%15.5%+15.4 pp
2026-08-07T20:39:42.513Z15.5%15.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
  • The executable UP entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 48.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.72 pp Edge | AntiPredict