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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +63.28 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY48.5%34.6% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+63.28 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 8.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 07, 08:15 PMAug 07, 08:17 PMAug 07, 08:19 PMAug 07, 08:22 PMAug 07, 08:24 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T20:15:17.651Z8.5%100.0%+91.5 pp
2026-08-07T20:16:50.466Z48.5%100.0%+51.5 pp
2026-08-07T20:18:27.370Z48.5%48.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-07T20:18:42.405Z48.5%100.0%+51.5 pp
2026-08-07T20:19:14.600Z8.5%100.0%+91.5 pp
2026-08-07T20:20:10.538Z8.5%8.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-07T20:20:25.480Z8.5%8.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-07T20:20:41.862Z8.5%100.0%+91.5 pp
2026-08-07T20:21:10.625Z8.5%100.0%+91.5 pp
2026-08-07T20:22:10.571Z8.5%8.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-07T20:22:34.884Z8.5%8.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-07T20:23:10.493Z8.5%8.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-07T20:24:14.557Z0.0%8.5%+8.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 48.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 34.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 63.3 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 34.6%, gross edge 66.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 63.3%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +63.28 pp Edge | AntiPredict