Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +29.26 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY51.5%53.4% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY84.9%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+29.26 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 07, 06:51 PMAug 07, 06:53 PMAug 07, 06:55 PMAug 07, 06:57 PMAug 07, 06:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T18:51:41.845Z56.5%96.0%+39.5 pp
2026-08-07T18:57:25.471Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T18:59:17.779Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 84.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 51.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 53.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 29.3 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 53.4%, gross edge 31.9%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 29.3%. Marx fair UP is 84.9%.