VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +29.26 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Aug 07, 06:50 PMAug 07, 06:52 PMAug 07, 06:54 PMAug 07, 06:57 PMAug 07, 06:59 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T18:50:23.941Z | 3.5% | 56.5% | +53.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T18:51:25.662Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T18:51:41.845Z | 56.5% | 96.0% | +39.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T18:53:24.809Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T18:53:39.322Z | 3.5% | 84.6% | +81.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T18:54:20.627Z | 3.5% | 84.6% | +81.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T18:55:12.061Z | 0.1% | 3.5% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T18:55:23.478Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T18:56:56.883Z | 3.5% | 99.0% | +95.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T18:57:11.134Z | 0.1% | 99.0% | +98.9 pp |
| 2026-08-07T18:57:25.471Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T18:58:13.409Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T18:59:17.779Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 84.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 51.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 53.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 29.3 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 53.4%, gross edge 31.9%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 29.3%. Marx fair UP is 84.9%.