VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +26.01 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Aug 07, 05:45 PMAug 07, 05:47 PMAug 07, 05:49 PMAug 07, 05:52 PMAug 07, 05:54 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T17:45:27.365Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T17:45:34.909Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T17:46:14.405Z | 50.5% | 74.4% | +23.9 pp |
| 2026-08-07T17:46:40.361Z | 50.5% | 74.4% | +23.9 pp |
| 2026-08-07T17:47:14.051Z | 50.5% | 74.4% | +23.9 pp |
| 2026-08-07T17:48:10.461Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T17:48:21.069Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T17:48:51.948Z | 50.5% | 23.4% | -27.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T17:48:52.764Z | 50.5% | 23.4% | -27.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T17:49:10.771Z | 50.5% | 23.4% | -27.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T17:50:18.317Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T17:50:35.598Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T17:50:52.187Z | 0.1% | 18.3% | +18.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T17:50:53.437Z | 0.1% | 18.3% | +18.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T17:51:15.113Z | 0.1% | 18.3% | +18.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T17:51:19.438Z | 13.5% | 18.3% | +4.8 pp |
| 2026-08-07T17:52:13.806Z | 0.1% | 18.3% | +18.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T17:52:16.299Z | 0.1% | 18.3% | +18.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T17:52:24.772Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T17:53:14.339Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T17:54:17.989Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 74.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 46.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 26.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 46.1%, gross edge 28.4%, slippage 0.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 26.0%. Marx fair UP is 74.4%.