Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.95 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY51.5%49.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.8%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.95 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN97.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 51.5%Marx Fair UP 0.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Aug 07, 05:21 PMAug 07, 05:22 PMAug 07, 05:22 PMAug 07, 05:23 PMAug 07, 05:23 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T17:21:45.465Z51.5%1.2%-50.3 pp
2026-08-07T17:23:39.746Z51.5%0.0%-51.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 51.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 49.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 48.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 49.0%, gross edge 50.2%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 48.0%. Marx fair UP is 0.8%.