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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +56.98 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%40.8% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+56.98 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 07, 01:40 PMAug 07, 01:42 PMAug 07, 01:44 PMAug 07, 01:46 PMAug 07, 01:48 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T13:40:11.600Z56.5%50.0%-6.5 pp
2026-08-07T13:40:27.545Z50.0%50.0%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T13:40:35.335Z50.0%100.0%+50.0 pp
2026-08-07T13:42:26.766Z8.5%50.5%+42.0 pp
2026-08-07T13:42:37.483Z8.5%50.5%+42.0 pp
2026-08-07T13:42:45.528Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T13:42:57.748Z8.5%8.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-07T13:43:10.775Z8.5%8.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-07T13:44:09.713Z8.5%100.0%+91.5 pp
2026-08-07T13:44:12.842Z8.5%100.0%+91.5 pp
2026-08-07T13:45:14.772Z8.5%8.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-07T13:45:43.490Z8.5%8.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-07T13:46:11.629Z8.5%50.5%+42.0 pp
2026-08-07T13:46:16.082Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T13:46:24.404Z8.5%8.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-07T13:47:15.432Z8.5%8.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-07T13:48:10.349Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T13:48:32.896Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
  • The executable UP entry was 40.8¢ with a net modeled edge of 57.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 40.8%, gross edge 60.0%, slippage 0.8%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 57.0%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +56.98 pp Edge | AntiPredict