Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +56.98 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%40.8% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+56.98 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 07, 01:40 PMAug 07, 01:42 PMAug 07, 01:44 PMAug 07, 01:46 PMAug 07, 01:48 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T13:40:35.335Z50.0%100.0%+50.0 pp
2026-08-07T13:48:32.896Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
  • The executable UP entry was 40.8¢ with a net modeled edge of 57.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 40.8%, gross edge 60.0%, slippage 0.8%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 57.0%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.