VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +60.69 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 65.5%
Aug 07, 01:30 PMAug 07, 01:32 PMAug 07, 01:34 PMAug 07, 01:36 PMAug 07, 01:38 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T13:30:10.620Z | 50.5% | 44.5% | -6.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:30:19.010Z | 44.5% | 44.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:30:35.941Z | 44.5% | 100.0% | +55.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:31:11.748Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:32:13.089Z | 65.5% | 65.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:32:33.543Z | 65.5% | 65.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:32:41.471Z | 65.5% | 100.0% | +34.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:33:13.275Z | 65.5% | 100.0% | +34.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:34:10.501Z | 65.5% | 65.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:34:19.777Z | 65.5% | 65.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:34:36.649Z | 65.5% | 100.0% | +34.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:35:13.782Z | 65.5% | 100.0% | +34.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:35:33.474Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:35:59.614Z | 65.5% | 100.0% | +34.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:36:10.512Z | 65.5% | 100.0% | +34.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:36:19.223Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:36:28.534Z | 65.5% | 65.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:37:12.709Z | 65.5% | 65.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:38:10.517Z | 100.0% | 65.5% | -34.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 44.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 37.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 60.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 37.2%, gross edge 63.0%, slippage 0.2%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 60.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.