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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +64.32 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY47.5%33.6% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+64.32 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 07, 09:45 AMAug 07, 09:46 AMAug 07, 09:48 AMAug 07, 09:49 AMAug 07, 09:51 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T09:45:11.122Z47.5%49.5%+2.0 pp
2026-08-07T09:45:14.891Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T09:45:25.441Z47.5%47.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T09:45:41.224Z47.5%100.0%+52.5 pp
2026-08-07T09:47:26.999Z47.5%47.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T09:47:38.824Z47.5%100.0%+52.5 pp
2026-08-07T09:47:39.620Z47.5%100.0%+52.5 pp
2026-08-07T09:49:22.295Z47.5%47.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T09:49:35.429Z47.5%100.0%+52.5 pp
2026-08-07T09:49:35.588Z47.5%100.0%+52.5 pp
2026-08-07T09:50:14.803Z0.5%100.0%+99.5 pp
2026-08-07T09:51:20.948Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 47.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 33.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 64.3 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 33.6%, gross edge 67.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 64.3%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +64.32 pp Edge | AntiPredict