VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +30.57 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Aug 07, 08:55 AMAug 07, 08:57 AMAug 07, 09:00 AMAug 07, 09:02 AMAug 07, 09:04 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T08:55:28.935Z | 59.5% | 59.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T08:55:43.771Z | 59.5% | 3.1% | -56.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T08:55:45.937Z | 59.5% | 3.1% | -56.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T08:56:10.577Z | 59.5% | 3.1% | -56.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T08:58:04.580Z | 59.5% | 59.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T08:58:13.006Z | 59.5% | 59.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T08:58:22.147Z | 59.5% | 59.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T08:59:10.220Z | 59.5% | 0.1% | -59.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T08:59:52.397Z | 59.5% | 0.1% | -59.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T09:00:11.472Z | 59.5% | 0.1% | -59.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T09:01:10.494Z | 59.5% | 59.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T09:01:22.725Z | 59.5% | 59.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T09:02:10.578Z | 59.5% | 61.5% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T09:02:14.596Z | 61.5% | 61.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T09:02:24.078Z | 59.5% | 59.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T09:03:10.459Z | 100.0% | 59.5% | -40.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T09:04:38.781Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 15.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.8¢ with a net modeled edge of 30.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.7%, gross edge 35.3%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 32.4%. Marx fair UP is 13.7%.