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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +32.92 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%55.8% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY9.1%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+32.92 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 07, 02:00 AMAug 07, 02:02 AMAug 07, 02:04 AMAug 07, 02:07 AMAug 07, 02:09 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T02:00:26.197Z36.5%9.1%-27.4 pp
2026-08-07T02:00:42.390Z50.5%9.1%-41.4 pp
2026-08-07T02:01:13.056Z36.5%9.1%-27.4 pp
2026-08-07T02:02:10.495Z36.5%36.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T02:02:20.684Z36.5%36.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T02:02:43.327Z36.5%0.9%-35.6 pp
2026-08-07T02:02:44.770Z36.5%0.9%-35.6 pp
2026-08-07T02:03:16.066Z36.5%0.9%-35.6 pp
2026-08-07T02:04:10.226Z36.5%36.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T02:04:26.744Z36.5%36.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T02:04:40.385Z36.5%0.5%-36.0 pp
2026-08-07T02:05:10.581Z36.5%0.5%-36.0 pp
2026-08-07T02:06:10.583Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T02:06:41.664Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T02:07:13.045Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T02:08:09.952Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T02:09:18.693Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 9.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 55.8¢ with a net modeled edge of 32.9 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 55.8%, gross edge 35.9%, slippage 0.8%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 32.9%. Marx fair UP is 9.1%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +32.92 pp Edge | AntiPredict