VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +20.05 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY26.7%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+20.05 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN89.6%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%

Aug 07, 01:41 AMAug 07, 01:43 AMAug 07, 01:45 AMAug 07, 01:47 AMAug 07, 01:49 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-08-07T01:41:00.548Z	10.5%	0.7%	-9.8 pp
2026-08-07T01:49:35.247Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 26.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 20.1 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 22.3%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 20.1%. Marx fair UP is 26.7%.