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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +20.05 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY26.7%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+20.05 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN89.6%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Aug 07, 01:40 AMAug 07, 01:42 AMAug 07, 01:45 AMAug 07, 01:47 AMAug 07, 01:49 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T01:40:36.295Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T01:40:53.899Z10.5%10.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T01:41:00.548Z10.5%0.7%-9.8 pp
2026-08-07T01:41:13.540Z10.5%0.7%-9.8 pp
2026-08-07T01:43:41.613Z36.5%36.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T01:43:55.411Z36.5%36.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T01:44:12.426Z31.5%31.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T01:44:25.383Z31.5%31.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T01:45:14.098Z36.5%0.0%-36.5 pp
2026-08-07T01:45:27.775Z36.5%0.0%-36.5 pp
2026-08-07T01:46:13.640Z36.5%0.0%-36.5 pp
2026-08-07T01:47:10.336Z36.5%36.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T01:47:20.757Z36.5%36.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T01:48:13.007Z36.5%36.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T01:49:10.233Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T01:49:35.247Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 26.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 20.1 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 22.3%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 20.1%. Marx fair UP is 26.7%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +20.05 pp Edge | AntiPredict