Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +30.95 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY43.5%67.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+30.95 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN45.9%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 43.5%Marx Fair UP 0.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%13%25%38%50%
Aug 06, 08:23 PMAug 06, 08:23 PMAug 06, 08:23 PMAug 06, 08:23 PMAug 06, 08:23 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-06T20:23:40.118Z43.5%0.0%-43.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 43.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 67.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 31.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 67.0%, gross edge 33.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 31.0%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.