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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +38.76 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY41.5%59.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+38.76 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 50.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 06, 08:00 PMAug 06, 08:02 PMAug 06, 08:04 PMAug 06, 08:07 PMAug 06, 08:09 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-06T20:00:23.161Z47.5%47.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:01:10.438Z47.5%48.5%+1.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:01:16.499Z48.5%48.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:01:27.188Z47.5%47.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:02:09.994Z41.5%41.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:02:20.974Z41.5%41.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:02:41.197Z41.5%0.0%-41.5 pp
2026-08-06T20:02:42.226Z41.5%0.0%-41.5 pp
2026-08-06T20:03:12.171Z48.5%0.0%-48.5 pp
2026-08-06T20:04:11.027Z97.5%48.5%-49.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:04:24.865Z48.5%48.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:04:47.321Z48.5%0.0%-48.5 pp
2026-08-06T20:05:10.432Z97.5%0.0%-97.5 pp
2026-08-06T20:06:10.228Z97.5%97.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:06:34.672Z97.5%97.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:07:09.919Z97.5%97.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:08:12.005Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:08:31.537Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:09:18.487Z100.0%50.5%-49.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 41.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 59.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 38.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 59.0%, gross edge 41.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 38.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +38.76 pp Edge | AntiPredict