VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +38.76 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY41.5%59.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+38.76 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 50.5%

Aug 06, 08:02 PMAug 06, 08:04 PMAug 06, 08:06 PMAug 06, 08:07 PMAug 06, 08:09 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-08-06T20:02:42.226Z	41.5%	0.0%	-41.5 pp
2026-08-06T20:08:31.537Z	50.5%	50.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:09:18.487Z	100.0%	50.5%	-49.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 41.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 59.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 38.8 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 59.0%, gross edge 41.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 38.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.