VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.73 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Aug 06, 07:10 PMAug 06, 07:12 PMAug 06, 07:14 PMAug 06, 07:16 PMAug 06, 07:19 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T19:10:15.971Z | 45.5% | 57.5% | +12.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:12:14.936Z | 57.5% | 57.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:13:10.521Z | 57.5% | 57.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:13:23.806Z | 57.5% | 57.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:14:10.180Z | 57.5% | 0.0% | -57.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:14:44.922Z | 57.5% | 0.0% | -57.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:14:45.523Z | 57.5% | 0.0% | -57.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:15:09.793Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:15:28.429Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:16:09.760Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:16:39.728Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:17:11.434Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:18:09.844Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:19:09.869Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 51.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 48.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.