Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.04 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.7% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY2.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+45.04 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN90.5%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Aug 06, 06:31 PMAug 06, 06:33 PMAug 06, 06:34 PMAug 06, 06:35 PMAug 06, 06:37 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-06T18:31:37.232Z53.5%0.1%-53.4 pp
2026-08-06T18:37:22.235Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 2.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.7%, gross edge 48.0%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.0%. Marx fair UP is 2.0%.