Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +68.62 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%29.4% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+68.62 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 06, 05:06 PMAug 06, 05:08 PMAug 06, 05:10 PMAug 06, 05:12 PMAug 06, 05:14 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-06T17:06:46.543Z50.5%100.0%+49.5 pp
2026-08-06T17:11:04.093Z5.5%100.0%+94.5 pp
2026-08-06T17:14:09.762Z0.0%100.0%+100.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 29.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 68.6 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 29.4%, gross edge 72.0%, slippage 1.4%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 68.6%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.