VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +68.62 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Aug 06, 05:05 PMAug 06, 05:07 PMAug 06, 05:09 PMAug 06, 05:11 PMAug 06, 05:14 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T17:05:19.107Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T17:06:23.317Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T17:06:45.808Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T17:06:46.543Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T17:08:26.249Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T17:08:46.942Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T17:08:47.986Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T17:09:24.738Z | 5.5% | 100.0% | +94.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T17:10:09.883Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T17:10:35.913Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T17:11:01.808Z | 5.5% | 100.0% | +94.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T17:11:04.093Z | 5.5% | 100.0% | +94.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T17:11:12.056Z | 5.5% | 100.0% | +94.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T17:12:43.846Z | 0.0% | 100.0% | +100.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T17:13:29.601Z | 5.5% | 100.0% | +94.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T17:14:09.762Z | 0.0% | 100.0% | +100.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 29.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 68.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 29.4%, gross edge 72.0%, slippage 1.4%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 68.6%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.