VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +17.01 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%81.4% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+17.01 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN21.2%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 67.5%

Aug 06, 03:21 PMAug 06, 03:23 PMAug 06, 03:25 PMAug 06, 03:27 PMAug 06, 03:29 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-08-06T15:21:42.235Z	49.5%	100.0%	+50.5 pp
2026-08-06T15:23:36.667Z	75.5%	100.0%	+24.5 pp
2026-08-06T15:28:21.670Z	67.5%	67.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T15:29:15.306Z	100.0%	67.5%	-32.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
The executable UP entry was 81.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 17.0 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 81.4%, gross edge 19.0%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.1%, safety 0.5%, net edge 17.0%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.