VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +17.01 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 67.5%
Aug 06, 03:20 PMAug 06, 03:22 PMAug 06, 03:24 PMAug 06, 03:27 PMAug 06, 03:29 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T15:20:30.191Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T15:21:42.235Z | 49.5% | 100.0% | +50.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T15:23:20.271Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T15:23:36.667Z | 75.5% | 100.0% | +24.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T15:24:16.038Z | 75.5% | 100.0% | +24.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T15:25:09.975Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T15:25:16.531Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T15:25:43.506Z | 75.5% | 100.0% | +24.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T15:26:09.740Z | 75.5% | 100.0% | +24.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T15:27:28.093Z | 100.0% | 67.5% | -32.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T15:27:56.204Z | 67.5% | 67.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T15:28:21.670Z | 67.5% | 67.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T15:29:15.306Z | 100.0% | 67.5% | -32.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 81.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 17.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 81.4%, gross edge 19.0%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.1%, safety 0.5%, net edge 17.0%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.