Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN93.2%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 06, 03:05 PMAug 06, 03:07 PMAug 06, 03:09 PMAug 06, 03:12 PMAug 06, 03:14 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-06T15:05:42.574Z56.5%100.0%+43.5 pp
2026-08-06T15:14:06.497Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T15:14:13.846Z100.0%99.5%-0.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.