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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +35.80 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY46.5%62.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+35.80 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN57.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 05, 10:05 PMAug 05, 10:07 PMAug 05, 10:09 PMAug 05, 10:11 PMAug 05, 10:14 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-05T22:05:19.371Z46.5%46.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T22:05:23.109Z46.5%46.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T22:05:42.269Z46.5%100.0%+53.5 pp
2026-08-05T22:06:10.357Z46.5%100.0%+53.5 pp
2026-08-05T22:07:09.721Z46.5%46.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T22:07:24.404Z46.5%46.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T22:07:34.427Z46.5%100.0%+53.5 pp
2026-08-05T22:08:09.450Z46.5%100.0%+53.5 pp
2026-08-05T22:09:19.007Z46.5%95.5%+49.0 pp
2026-08-05T22:09:23.537Z95.5%95.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T22:09:40.796Z46.5%100.0%+53.5 pp
2026-08-05T22:09:42.697Z46.5%100.0%+53.5 pp
2026-08-05T22:10:09.797Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-08-05T22:10:16.252Z95.5%100.0%+4.5 pp
2026-08-05T22:11:45.323Z100.0%99.5%-0.5 pp
2026-08-05T22:12:17.104Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T22:12:38.994Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T22:13:10.013Z95.5%99.5%+4.0 pp
2026-08-05T22:14:09.247Z100.0%99.5%-0.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 46.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 62.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 35.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 62.0%, gross edge 39.0%, slippage 1.0%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 35.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +35.80 pp Edge | AntiPredict