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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+46.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 05, 09:55 PMAug 05, 09:57 PMAug 05, 09:59 PMAug 05, 10:01 PMAug 05, 10:03 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-05T21:55:29.164Z43.5%50.5%+7.0 pp
2026-08-05T21:56:21.019Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T21:57:40.632Z43.5%100.0%+56.5 pp
2026-08-05T21:58:09.951Z43.5%100.0%+56.5 pp
2026-08-05T21:59:13.267Z26.5%26.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T21:59:27.035Z26.5%26.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T21:59:32.692Z26.5%100.0%+73.5 pp
2026-08-05T22:00:09.745Z0.5%100.0%+99.5 pp
2026-08-05T22:01:09.229Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T22:01:17.187Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T22:02:09.669Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T22:03:10.669Z0.0%0.5%+0.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict