Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +14.25 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.5% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY68.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+14.25 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-12.4%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 44.5%Marx Fair UP 44.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 06, 04:30 PMAug 06, 04:32 PMAug 06, 04:34 PMAug 06, 04:36 PMAug 06, 04:38 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-06T16:30:48.703Z57.5%100.0%+42.5 pp
2026-08-06T16:32:41.947Z57.5%100.0%+42.5 pp
2026-08-06T16:38:42.821Z44.5%44.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 68.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 14.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.5%, gross edge 22.7%, slippage 0.5%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 19.9%. Marx fair UP is 73.7%.