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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +25.93 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY79.2%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+25.93 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Aug 05, 03:51 PMAug 05, 03:53 PMAug 05, 03:54 PMAug 05, 03:56 PMAug 05, 03:58 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-05T15:51:24.183Z50.0%50.0%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T15:52:09.149Z50.0%58.5%+8.5 pp
2026-08-05T15:52:46.919Z50.0%58.5%+8.5 pp
2026-08-05T15:53:09.255Z5.5%58.5%+53.0 pp
2026-08-05T15:53:17.147Z5.5%58.5%+53.0 pp
2026-08-05T15:54:24.462Z5.5%5.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T15:54:24.829Z5.5%5.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T15:54:51.935Z5.5%50.3%+44.8 pp
2026-08-05T15:55:09.819Z0.5%50.3%+49.8 pp
2026-08-05T15:56:09.518Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T15:56:35.462Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T15:57:56.624Z0.0%0.5%+0.5 pp
2026-08-05T15:58:18.518Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 79.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 25.9 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 28.2%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 25.9%. Marx fair UP is 79.2%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +25.93 pp Edge | AntiPredict