VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.22 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 40.5%
Aug 05, 03:21 PMAug 05, 03:23 PMAug 05, 03:25 PMAug 05, 03:27 PMAug 05, 03:29 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T15:21:09.246Z | 54.5% | 48.5% | -6.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:21:22.294Z | 48.5% | 48.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:21:41.320Z | 54.5% | 54.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:22:02.047Z | 54.5% | 100.0% | +45.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:22:12.186Z | 54.5% | 100.0% | +45.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:23:14.461Z | 54.5% | 54.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:23:29.990Z | 54.5% | 54.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:24:46.391Z | 40.5% | 100.0% | +59.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:25:15.485Z | 40.5% | 100.0% | +59.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:25:24.732Z | 40.5% | 100.0% | +59.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:26:10.166Z | 40.5% | 40.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:26:24.357Z | 40.5% | 40.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:27:52.685Z | 0.0% | 40.5% | +40.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:28:08.613Z | 40.5% | 40.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:29:09.164Z | 0.5% | 40.5% | +40.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 98.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 50.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.4%, gross edge 48.8%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.1%. Marx fair UP is 98.8%.