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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 05, 01:35 PMAug 05, 01:37 PMAug 05, 01:39 PMAug 05, 01:41 PMAug 05, 01:43 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-05T13:35:12.787Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T13:35:56.617Z43.5%43.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T13:36:07.360Z43.5%43.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T13:36:58.399Z44.5%0.0%-44.5 pp
2026-08-05T13:36:59.054Z43.5%0.0%-43.5 pp
2026-08-05T13:37:43.779Z63.5%44.5%-19.0 pp
2026-08-05T13:37:45.336Z44.5%44.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T13:37:54.865Z63.5%63.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T13:38:36.337Z99.5%63.5%-36.0 pp
2026-08-05T13:39:21.632Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T13:39:41.187Z99.5%63.5%-36.0 pp
2026-08-05T13:39:51.045Z63.5%63.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T13:40:03.495Z63.5%0.0%-63.5 pp
2026-08-05T13:40:39.517Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-08-05T13:42:01.271Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T13:42:16.727Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T13:42:38.221Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T13:43:39.732Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict