VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.02 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Aug 05, 11:50 AMAug 05, 11:52 AMAug 05, 11:54 AMAug 05, 11:57 AMAug 05, 11:59 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T11:50:25.560Z | 37.5% | 50.0% | +12.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:50:30.941Z | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:50:41.727Z | 37.5% | 37.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:51:06.911Z | 37.5% | 2.8% | -34.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:51:24.137Z | 53.5% | 2.8% | -50.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:52:25.508Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:52:33.992Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:53:22.300Z | 53.5% | 0.1% | -53.4 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:53:55.059Z | 53.5% | 0.1% | -53.4 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:54:22.067Z | 53.5% | 0.1% | -53.4 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:55:21.955Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:55:39.702Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:55:58.922Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:56:21.685Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:57:30.469Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:57:43.348Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:58:24.433Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:59:24.588Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 1.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 48.3%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.0%. Marx fair UP is 1.7%.