VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.02 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%50.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY1.7%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+46.02 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN93.2%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%

Aug 05, 11:57 AMAug 05, 11:58 AMAug 05, 11:58 AMAug 05, 11:58 AMAug 05, 11:59 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-08-05T11:57:43.348Z	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T11:59:24.588Z	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 1.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.0 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 48.3%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.0%. Marx fair UP is 1.7%.