VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +17.51 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY30.2%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+17.51 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%

Aug 05, 10:59 AMAug 05, 11:00 AMAug 05, 11:01 AMAug 05, 11:02 AMAug 05, 11:03 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-08-05T10:59:08.554Z	50.5%	50.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T10:59:22.546Z	50.5%	50.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T11:03:10.753Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 30.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 17.5 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 19.8%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 17.5%. Marx fair UP is 30.2%.