VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +17.51 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Aug 05, 10:55 AMAug 05, 10:57 AMAug 05, 10:59 AMAug 05, 11:01 AMAug 05, 11:04 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T10:55:16.238Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T10:55:34.074Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T10:56:09.425Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T10:57:04.806Z | 50.5% | 39.6% | -10.9 pp |
| 2026-08-05T10:57:47.491Z | 50.5% | 39.6% | -10.9 pp |
| 2026-08-05T10:58:04.489Z | 50.5% | 39.6% | -10.9 pp |
| 2026-08-05T10:59:08.554Z | 50.5% | 65.5% | +15.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T10:59:11.226Z | 65.5% | 65.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T10:59:22.546Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:00:04.786Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:00:22.984Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:00:49.566Z | 99.5% | 46.1% | -53.4 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:00:49.920Z | 99.5% | 46.1% | -53.4 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:01:07.437Z | 99.5% | 46.1% | -53.4 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:02:01.570Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:03:01.482Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:03:10.753Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:04:07.375Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 30.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 17.5 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 19.8%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 17.5%. Marx fair UP is 30.2%.