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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +48.75 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY48.0%49.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+48.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN97.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 59.5%Marx Fair UP 59.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 05, 09:45 AMAug 05, 09:47 AMAug 05, 09:49 AMAug 05, 09:52 AMAug 05, 09:54 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-05T09:45:06.589Z48.5%48.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-05T09:46:15.780Z48.5%48.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-05T09:46:32.197Z48.5%100.0%+51.5 pp
2026-08-05T09:48:21.809Z48.5%48.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-05T09:48:35.214Z48.5%100.0%+51.5 pp
2026-08-05T09:49:06.237Z79.5%100.0%+20.5 pp
2026-08-05T09:50:13.967Z99.5%59.5%-40.0 pp
2026-08-05T09:50:17.730Z59.5%59.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T09:50:26.303Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T09:50:39.919Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-08-05T09:50:41.374Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-08-05T09:51:08.579Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-08-05T09:51:11.041Z59.5%100.0%+40.5 pp
2026-08-05T09:51:20.423Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-08-05T09:52:38.350Z59.5%100.0%+40.5 pp
2026-08-05T09:54:03.657Z79.5%59.5%-20.0 pp
2026-08-05T09:54:44.569Z59.5%59.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 48.0%.
  • The executable UP entry was 49.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 48.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 49.0%, gross edge 51.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 48.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +48.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict