Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +8.31 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.6% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY62.1%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+8.31 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 14.5%Marx Fair UP 14.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 05, 07:41 AMAug 05, 07:43 AMAug 05, 07:45 AMAug 05, 07:47 AMAug 05, 07:49 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-05T07:41:30.191Z50.5%77.5%+27.0 pp
2026-08-05T07:49:38.865Z14.5%14.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 62.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 8.3 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.6%, gross edge 11.1%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 8.3%. Marx fair UP is 62.1%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +8.31 pp Edge | AntiPredict