VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +8.31 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 14.5%Marx Fair UP 14.5%
Aug 05, 07:40 AMAug 05, 07:42 AMAug 05, 07:44 AMAug 05, 07:47 AMAug 05, 07:49 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T07:40:06.382Z | 62.5% | 50.5% | -12.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:41:14.499Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:41:30.191Z | 50.5% | 77.5% | +27.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:42:08.318Z | 62.5% | 77.5% | +15.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:43:04.470Z | 62.5% | 62.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:43:14.043Z | 62.5% | 62.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:43:31.343Z | 62.5% | 86.2% | +23.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:44:04.514Z | 62.5% | 86.2% | +23.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:45:06.097Z | 62.5% | 86.7% | +24.2 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:45:39.679Z | 50.5% | 86.7% | +36.2 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:46:06.738Z | 62.5% | 86.7% | +24.2 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:47:04.678Z | 14.5% | 96.9% | +82.4 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:47:32.846Z | 14.5% | 96.9% | +82.4 pp |
| 2026-08-05T07:49:38.865Z | 14.5% | 14.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 62.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 8.3 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.6%, gross edge 11.1%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 8.3%. Marx fair UP is 62.1%.