VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +19.14 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.4% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY72.8%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+19.14 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN-11.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 17.5%Marx Fair UP 17.5%

Aug 05, 06:22 AMAug 05, 06:22 AMAug 05, 06:22 AMAug 05, 06:22 AMAug 05, 06:22 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-08-05T06:22:18.252Z	17.5%	17.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 72.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable UP entry was 51.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 19.1 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.4%, gross edge 22.6%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 19.9%. Marx fair UP is 73.6%.