VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +19.34 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY52.5%79.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+19.34 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN24.2%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 52.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%

Aug 04, 11:40 PMAug 04, 11:40 PMAug 04, 11:40 PMAug 04, 11:40 PMAug 04, 11:40 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-08-04T23:40:30.856Z	52.5%	100.0%	+47.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 52.5%.
The executable UP entry was 79.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 19.3 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 79.0%, gross edge 21.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.2%, safety 0.5%, net edge 19.3%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.