VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +19.34 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Aug 04, 11:40 PMAug 04, 11:42 PMAug 04, 11:44 PMAug 04, 11:47 PMAug 04, 11:49 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04T23:40:04.634Z | 83.5% | 100.0% | +16.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:40:30.856Z | 52.5% | 100.0% | +47.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:41:04.592Z | 83.5% | 100.0% | +16.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:42:04.591Z | 83.5% | 83.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:42:19.549Z | 83.5% | 83.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:42:27.002Z | 83.5% | 100.0% | +16.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:43:04.478Z | 83.5% | 100.0% | +16.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:44:04.684Z | 83.5% | 83.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:44:14.781Z | 83.5% | 83.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:44:26.177Z | 83.5% | 100.0% | +16.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:45:04.429Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:45:15.357Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:46:04.436Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:46:14.677Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:47:04.557Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:48:04.497Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:49:40.350Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 52.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 79.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 19.3 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 79.0%, gross edge 21.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.2%, safety 0.5%, net edge 19.3%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.