VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.77 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 16.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Aug 02, 07:51 PMAug 02, 07:53 PMAug 02, 07:54 PMAug 02, 07:55 PMAug 02, 07:57 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02T19:51:48.904Z | 48.5% | 100.0% | +51.5 pp |
| 2026-08-02T19:52:23.627Z | 16.5% | 100.0% | +83.5 pp |
| 2026-08-02T19:53:13.250Z | 48.5% | 48.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T19:57:17.071Z | 16.5% | 100.0% | +83.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 1.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.