VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.99 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 40.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 6.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.1%, gross edge 8.3%, slippage 0.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 6.0%. Marx fair UP is 40.7%.