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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +63.41 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY58.5%34.5% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+63.41 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Aug 01, 07:56 AMAug 01, 07:58 AMAug 01, 08:00 AMAug 01, 08:02 AMAug 01, 08:04 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-01T07:56:12.180Z58.5%58.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T07:56:26.183Z58.5%58.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T07:57:07.280Z58.5%58.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T07:58:02.502Z58.5%0.0%-58.5 pp
2026-08-01T07:58:14.516Z58.5%0.0%-58.5 pp
2026-08-01T07:59:11.550Z99.5%66.5%-33.0 pp
2026-08-01T07:59:35.568Z66.5%66.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T08:00:21.379Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T08:00:57.445Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-08-01T08:01:09.703Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-08-01T08:02:07.582Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T08:03:07.558Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T08:03:13.891Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T08:04:32.649Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 58.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 34.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 63.4 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 41.5%, gross edge 59.0%, slippage 0.5%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 56.3%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +63.41 pp Edge | AntiPredict