Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.01 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%51.2% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY41.5%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+5.01 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-11.1%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 77.0%Marx Fair UP 25.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 01, 05:58 PMAug 01, 05:59 PMAug 01, 05:59 PMAug 01, 05:59 PMAug 01, 05:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-01T17:58:49.581Z25.5%25.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T17:59:48.599Z77.0%25.5%-51.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 41.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 51.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.2%, gross edge 8.3%, slippage 0.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.9%. Marx fair UP is 40.7%.