VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +33.21 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%53.2% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY11.3%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+33.21 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 89.5%Marx Fair UP 89.5%

Aug 01, 04:50 AMAug 01, 04:52 AMAug 01, 04:54 AMAug 01, 04:55 AMAug 01, 04:57 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-08-01T04:50:39.005Z	89.5%	49.5%	-40.0 pp
2026-08-01T04:50:55.698Z	49.5%	49.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T04:54:18.355Z	89.5%	47.5%	-42.0 pp
2026-08-01T04:54:52.104Z	47.5%	47.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T04:55:03.787Z	89.5%	89.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T04:55:09.179Z	89.5%	89.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T04:56:08.169Z	89.5%	89.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T04:57:21.279Z	89.5%	89.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 11.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
The executable DOWN entry was 53.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 33.2 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 53.2%, gross edge 37.7%, slippage 2.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 33.2%. Marx fair UP is 11.3%.