VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +6.60 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - August 1, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 39.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 6.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.3%, gross edge 10.3%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 7.7%. Marx fair UP is 38.7%.