Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +57.40 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 31, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%40.4% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+57.40 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN137.5%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 40.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 57.4 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 40.4%, gross edge 60.0%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 57.4%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.