VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +57.40 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 31, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 31, 09:21 AMJul 31, 09:23 AMJul 31, 09:25 AMJul 31, 09:26 AMJul 31, 09:28 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T09:21:21.497Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T09:25:26.893Z | 4.5% | 0.1% | -4.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T09:25:39.255Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T09:26:27.958Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T09:26:29.089Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T09:26:33.731Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T09:27:13.635Z | 8.5% | 8.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T09:28:20.152Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T09:28:39.569Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T09:28:43.529Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 40.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 57.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 40.4%, gross edge 60.0%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 57.4%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.