Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +19.07 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 31, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%47.4% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY31.3%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+19.07 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN103.6%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 50.5%Marx Fair UP 31.3%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Jul 31, 05:30 AMJul 31, 05:30 AMJul 31, 05:30 AMJul 31, 05:30 AMJul 31, 05:30 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-31T05:30:24.159Z50.5%31.3%-19.2 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 31.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 47.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 19.1 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 41.0%, gross edge 28.7%, slippage 1.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 25.5%. Marx fair UP is 31.3%.