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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +19.07 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 31, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%47.4% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY31.3%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+19.07 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN103.6%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 88.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 31, 05:30 AMJul 31, 05:32 AMJul 31, 05:34 AMJul 31, 05:37 AMJul 31, 05:39 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-31T05:30:10.862Z53.5%31.3%-22.2 pp
2026-07-31T05:30:24.159Z50.5%31.3%-19.2 pp
2026-07-31T05:31:03.578Z61.5%61.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T05:31:12.651Z53.5%53.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T05:31:40.605Z53.5%49.5%-4.0 pp
2026-07-31T05:31:42.213Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T05:31:47.073Z53.5%53.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T05:32:40.028Z53.5%53.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T05:33:36.173Z53.5%21.5%-32.0 pp
2026-07-31T05:33:40.931Z53.5%21.5%-32.0 pp
2026-07-31T05:34:59.318Z53.5%53.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T05:35:40.665Z53.5%53.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T05:35:40.668Z0.5%53.5%+53.0 pp
2026-07-31T05:36:47.534Z88.5%53.5%-35.0 pp
2026-07-31T05:38:32.294Z88.5%88.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T05:39:45.151Z0.0%88.5%+88.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 31.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 47.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 19.1 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 41.0%, gross edge 28.7%, slippage 1.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 25.5%. Marx fair UP is 31.3%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +19.07 pp Edge | AntiPredict