Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.99 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.8%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+46.99 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 65.5%Marx Fair UP 65.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Jul 31, 02:53 AMJul 31, 02:54 AMJul 31, 02:56 AMJul 31, 02:58 AMJul 31, 02:59 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-31T02:53:13.279Z38.5%0.0%-38.5 pp
2026-07-31T02:59:24.957Z65.5%65.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-31T02:59:37.536Z65.5%65.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.1%, gross edge 48.0%, slippage 0.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.